The Contenders is a compelling midweek column dedicated to analyzing artists striving for the pinnacle of the Billboard charts, delving into the strategies that fuel their ambitions. This week, we assess the potential of Alex Warren’s “Ordinary” to claim the coveted top position after a remarkable 12-week reign of “Luther.”

Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): The captivating anthem “Ordinary” has emerged as a sleeper hit over a remarkable 13 weeks on the Billboard Hot 100. This multifaceted love song by Alex Warren blends folk and pop elements, showcasing its broad appeal. Following its initial viral success, which was amplified by Warren’s presence as a digital influencer and his time with the Hype House collective, the song has made its way into various high-profile events, including the Love Is Blind reunion and Jelly Roll’s performance at the Stagecoach Music Festival. This exposure has transformed “Ordinary” into a global sensation, as it recently topped the Billboard Global 200 for a second consecutive week as of May 17, and now sets its sights on reaching the No. 1 position on the Hot 100.

The track “Ordinary” has already claimed the top position on two of the three component charts comprising the Hot 100. It has maintained a stronghold at the top of both the Streaming Songs chart, where it has garnered a staggering 21.6 million official U.S. streams this week, marking a slight increase of less than 1%, according to Luminate. Furthermore, it has also dominated the Digital Song Sales chart for three weeks, selling 6,000 copies despite a decline of 11%. While it still has some catching up to do in terms of radio play, it is making significant strides, climbing from 34 to 27 on the Radio Songs chart this week, thanks to a remarkable 24% increase in radio audience. This surge positions “Ordinary” as the top gainer in audience between May 9-12, as it aims to break into the top 20 of that chart.

As we look at the Billboard Hot 100 landscape of 2025, it has been largely dominated by established superstars such as Kendrick Lamar, SZA, Travis Scott, Lady Gaga, and Bruno Mars. If “Ordinary” manages to ascend to the No. 1 position, it would mark a significant milestone for Alex Warren, making him the first artist of the year to achieve a Hot 100 debut at the top, all while doing so with only his second entry on the chart.

Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): The commanding track “Luther” has remained virtually unchallenged on the Hot 100 since it took the reins following the Super Bowl in early March. However, signs of a decline in its dominance are becoming evident. This week, it has experienced drops in radio play (down 4%), streams (7%), and sales (12%), although it still performs admirably across all metrics, maintaining its reign on the Radio Songs chart for a sixth consecutive week. Nevertheless, the song is clearly on a downward trajectory, and it may relinquish its Radio Songs title as soon as next week.

With “Luther” experiencing a decline and “Ordinary” continuing to gain momentum, it appears to be only a matter of time before the latter overtakes the former at the top of the Hot 100. Regardless of when this transition occurs, “Luther” has already solidified its place in history with its impressive 12-week reign. It has set the all-time record for the longest duration at No. 1 for a duet featuring co-billed lead solo male and female artists, as well as achieving the best run for a rap song in the decade of the 2020s.

Key Tracks to Watch

Doechii, “Anxiety” (Top Dawg/Capitol/ICLG): Close on the heels of “Luther” on the Hot 100 is another standout track from the TDE family — “Anxiety,” which marks Doechii’s inaugural top 10 hit, soaring to a new peak of No. 9 on the chart. Its rise can largely be attributed to a growing radio audience, as the song, which cleverly samples Gotye & Kimbra, climbs from No. 3 to No. 2 on the Radio Songs chart. It is poised to potentially become her first No. 1 hit in the near future. However, its future trajectory on the Hot 100 may depend on whether it can maintain its momentum on radio to counterbalance its declining performance in streaming, where it fell from No. 27 to No. 34 on this week’s Streaming Songs chart.

Jessie Murph, “Blue Strips” (Columbia): One of the most exciting breakthrough hits of the spring season is undeniably the super-viral track “Blue Strips” by singer-songwriter Jessie Murph. This hybrid country/trap/pop track has made an impressive leap up the Hot 100, skyrocketing from No. 81 to No. 15 in just four weeks. The song has already reached the top five on the Streaming Songs chart and is beginning to gain traction on radio. It aims to achieve its first unaccompanied solo entry on the upcoming Pop Airplay chart. “Blue Strips” represents Murph’s highest-charting hit to date, and if it continues to resonate with audiences, a top 10 position seems well within reach.

Morgan Wallen, “Superman” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Released on May 9, “Superman” is the eighth and final advance release from Morgan Wallen’s highly anticipated upcoming album I’m the Problem. This track is expected to make a strong debut on streaming platforms, contributing to Wallen’s ongoing chart presence, as he currently has multiple active singles across streaming and radio, alongside five tracks within the Hot 100’s top 40. Although “Superman” may not be the primary focus track at this time, it lays the groundwork for the impending release of the full I’m the Problem album next week, which is expected to generate significant buzz and chart activity.