Are we in store for more “Emmy sweepers” in the upcoming awards season?

The Television Academy boasts a remarkable membership of over 25,000 voting members, which is organized into 31 peer groups, each representing distinct areas of expertise, such as actors, writers, Editors, and more. Within the numerous categories available, only 15 are voted on by the entire membership. These prestigious categories include Outstanding Comedy Series, Outstanding Drama Series, Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, Outstanding Television Movie, Outstanding Talk Series, Outstanding Variety Special (both live and pre-recorded), Outstanding Short Form Series (covering comedy, drama, variety, nonfiction, or reality), Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series, and various categories for both structured and unstructured reality shows, as well as competition programs and scripted variety shows.

Unlike the Oscars, which allow all eligible members to participate in the final voting round, the Emmys restrict both nominations and the selection of winners to designated peer groups. This exclusivity significantly influences the voting dynamics and contributes to the emergence of a modern phenomenon known as the Emmy sweep.

Prior to 2020, only one series had ever achieved the remarkable feat of winning all seven major awards (including series, acting, writing, and directing): HBO’s acclaimed “Angels in America” in 2004. However, the COVID-era surprise was Pop TV’s “Schitt’s Creek,” which, in its final season, swept all categories—an outcome that took many by surprise, considering it had received only one nomination in its first five seasons and had yet to win any awards.

In 2021, Netflix followed suit with “The Crown” Season 4, which also secured seven major victories. Although complete sweeps have become rare since then, the trend of dominance by certain shows has persisted.

The inaugural season of HBO’s “The White Lotus,” classified as a limited series at the time, won five out of the seven categories it was eligible for—largely due to the decision to forgo lead actor nominations. Fast forward to the 2023 Emmys (held in January 2024 due to the WGA-SAG strikes), where the final season of HBO’s “Succession” triumphed in six of seven categories, losing only in the supporting drama actress category. Meanwhile, FX’s “The Bear” made a splash by sweeping all six of its main categories—though it notably did not submit a lead comedy actress, resulting in Ayo Edebiri winning instead in the supporting category.

Netflix’s “Beef” also claimed five out of its seven major categories, falling short only to Paul Walter Hauser from “Black Bird” and Niecy Nash-Betts from “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story.”

Zooming ahead nine months to the September 2024 ceremony: “Hacks” pulled off one of the most significant upsets in recent Emmy history by winning the comedy series award over the heavily favored sophomore season of “The Bear.” However, that loss didn’t sting too badly for FX, as “The Bear” still set a record with ten wins, including five out of six acting awards. The only category it missed out on was writing, which went to the “Hacks” star Jean Smart and the writing team of Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky.

FX also made its mark with “Shōgun,” which established a new record for drama wins, while Netflix’s “Baby Reindeer” secured five of its six nominations.

In today’s era of near-sweeps, this pattern has become the norm. As a commentator with years of experience covering the Emmys, I must admit: it’s increasingly difficult not to expect it. But is this the way it should be?

If history serves as a guide, Apple TV+’s cerebral drama “Severance,” the high-concept satire “The Studio,” and the gritty British crime miniseries “Adolescence” are well-positioned to emerge as the next major Emmy sweepers.

Being favored by the four largest branches of the Academy—Executives, Actors, Writers, and Editors—is certainly advantageous. Shows with substantial support across these groups tend to perform exceptionally well during the awards. Although executives only vote on series, it’s reasonable to assume many will support their own studio’s flagship productions.

HBO Max enters the competition with a record-breaking total of 142 nominations, featuring three drama contenders: the sophomore season of the zombie phenomenon “The Last of Us,” the highly-anticipated medical series “The Pitt,” and the third installment of Mike White’s acclaimed “The White Lotus.” While “The Pitt” has the fewest nominations of the trio, it may possess the clearest pathway to winning the coveted drama series award.

Noah Wyle finds himself in a competitive battle against “Severance” lead Adam Scott, whose series has amassed an astounding 27 nominations. With supporting nominations for actors like Katherine LaNasa, alongside nods in writing and directing, “Severance” boasts a formidable toolkit. However, will it be able to secure the ultimate victory with Wyle as the central figure?

Mike White’s dramedy isn’t backing down. “The White Lotus” has garnered attention for its writing, particularly for the “Full-Moon Celebration” episode, which features Sam Rockwell’s show-stopping monologue, and has formidable contenders in supporting roles like Walton Goggins and Carrie Coon.

However, “Severance” still has the potential to outpace it. Scott is a top-tier contender for the lead drama actor award, with co-stars Tramell Tillman and John Turturro capable of outperforming any of their competitors. A Tillman victory would be historic, marking him as the first Black man to win this category, which would undoubtedly be a significant entry in the annals of Emmy history.

In the lead actress category, Britt Lower may benefit from Kathy Bates being the sole nominee from CBS’s “Matlock.” It has been two decades since a lead acting Emmy was awarded to someone who was the only nominee for their show—Patricia Arquette for “Medium” in 2005. It’s a challenging uphill battle, even for Bates, who made history as the oldest lead drama actress nominee ever.

Interestingly, Patricia Arquette returns in the supporting category for “Severance,” and with seven previous nominations and one Emmy win for “The Act” in 2019, she is considered Emmy royalty. With no co-stars to divide the votes—unlike “The White Lotus,” which features four women in the same category—she could easily win again, especially if “Severance” performs well overall.

Then there’s “The Studio,” which tied “The Bear” for the most comedy nominations ever. “Hacks” has dropped two key nominations, including Paul W. Downs in the supporting actor category, which opens the door wide for “The Studio.”

Ike Barinholtz faces a tough supporting race against 83-year-old legend Harrison Ford from “Shrinking,” while the writing award might go to either “The Studio” or the unexpected competitor: Nathan Fielder’s “The Rehearsal,” which garnered four surprising nominations. When writers go above and beyond for a series, it can signal something significant. Look at “My Name is Earl,” which in 2006 became the first and only series to win both writing and directing awards without being nominated for comedy series. Could Fielder be heading toward a similar fate?

Moving on to “Adolescence,” which secured 13 nominations, it goes head-to-head with HBO Max’s “The Penguin,” which boasts a staggering 24 nominations. Shows in the genre typically struggle to convert nominations into significant wins. For instance, while “Watchmen” achieved 11 wins from 26 nominations, there are also cases like “WandaVision” (23 nominations, three wins) or “The Mandalorian” (24 nominations, seven technical wins) in the same year for drama series.

Nonetheless, “The Penguin” could defy that trend. Colin Farrell and Cristin Milioti are serious contenders for lead actor accolades. Stephen Graham, who is both co-creator and star, is a strong candidate as well, but will actors choose someone else while still supporting the series in every other way? Owen Cooper and Erin Doherty are frontrunners in the supporting categories, and the show appears likely to secure wins in writing and directing. A partial sweep seems realistic.

The path ahead is long, and momentum can shift rapidly. Yet if recent years are any indication, Emmy night 2025 may once again be dominated by just a handful of series, each hoping to run the table on awards.

Stay tuned for our winner predictions below, as the Emmy charts will be updated in the coming days.

The 77th Emmy Awards will be hosted by Nate Bargatze and broadcast live on Sunday, September 14 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on CBS, with live streaming and on-demand options available through select packages on Paramount+.

Explore All of Variety’s Award Predictions

Awards Circuit Predictions: Emmys

Best Drama Series:
“Severance” (Apple TV+)

Best Comedy Series:
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Best Limited Series:
“Adolescence” (Netflix)

Best Television Movie:
“Rebel Ridge” (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Drama Actor:
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)

Outstanding Lead Comedy Actor:
Seth Rogen, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series:
Stephen Graham, “Adolescence” (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Drama Actress:
Britt Lower, “Severance” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Lead Comedy Actress:
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series:
Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex” (FX)

Outstanding Supporting Drama Actor:
Tramell Tillman, “Severance” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Supporting Comedy Actor:
Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series:
Owen Cooper, “Adolescence” (Netflix)

Outstanding Supporting Drama Actress:
Patricia Arquette, “Severance” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Supporting Comedy Actress:
Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series:
Erin Doherty, “Adolescence” (Netflix)

Outstanding Guest Drama Actor:
Shawn Hatosy, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)

Outstanding Guest Drama Actress:
Kaitlyn Dever, “The Last of Us” (HBO Max)

Outstanding Guest Comedy Actor:
Bryan Cranston, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Guest Comedy Actress:
Julianne Nicholson, “Hacks” (HBO Max)

Outstanding Competition Program:
“The Traitors” (Peacock)

Outstanding Structured Reality Program:
“Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)

Outstanding Unstructured Reality Program:
“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)

Outstanding Talk Series:
“The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)

Outstanding Scripted Variety Program:
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)

Outstanding Live Variety Special:
“SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)

Outstanding Pre-Recorded Variety Special:
“Adam Sandler: Love You” (Netflix)

Outstanding Documentary Series:
“Social Studies” (FX)

Outstanding Documentary Special:
“Will & Harper” (Netflix)

Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series:
“Conan O’Brien Must Go” (HBO Max)

Outstanding Variety Special:
“I Am Celine Dion” (Prime Video)

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series:
Ben Stiller, “Severance” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series:
Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series:
Philip Barantini, “Adolescence” (Netflix)

Outstanding Directing for a Documentary:
Matt Wolf, “Pee-wee as Himself” (HBO Max)

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special:
Liz Patrick, “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)

Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series:
Paul Pennolino, “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)

Outstanding Directing for a Reality Series:
Cian O’Clery, “Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series:
“The White Lotus” (HBO Max) – “Full-Moon Celebration” by Mike White

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series:
“The Rehearsal” (HBO Max) – “Pilot’s Code” by Nathan Fielder

Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series:
“Adolescence” (Netflix) – Created by Jack Thorne and Stephen Graham

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series:
“The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special:
“Your Friend, Nate Bargatze” (Netflix)

Outstanding Writing for a Nonfiction Program:
“Martha” (Netflix) by RJ Cutler

Outstanding Game Show:
“Jeopardy” (ABC)

Outstanding Game Show Host:
Jimmy Kimmel, “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” (ABC)

Outstanding Reality Host:
Alan Cumming, “The Traitors” (Peacock)

Outstanding Casting for a Drama Series:
“The Pitt” (HBO Max)

Outstanding Casting for a Comedy Series:
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Casting for a Limited Series:
“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)

Outstanding Casting for a Reality Series:
“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)

Outstanding Animated Program:
“The Simpsons” (Fox)

Outstanding Character Voiceover Performance:
Alan Tudyk, “Andor” (Disney+)

Outstanding Short Form Performer:
Tom Segura, “Dangerous Ideas” (Netflix)

Outstanding Production Design for Contemporary One Hour:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “Homecoming”

Outstanding Production Design for Period Fantasy One Hour:
“Andor” (Disney+) – “Who Are You?”

Outstanding Production Design for Narrative Half Hour:
“What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) – “Headhunting”

Outstanding Production Design for Variety/Reality:
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC) – “Host: Lady Gaga”

Outstanding Production Design for Variety Special:
“The Oscars” (ABC)

Outstanding Cinematography for Half-Hour Series:
“The Studio” (Apple TV+) – “The Oner”

Outstanding Cinematography for One Hour Series:
“Severance” (Apple TV+) – “Hello, Ms. Cobel”

Outstanding Cinematography for Limited Series:
“Adolescence” (Netflix) – “Episode 2”

Outstanding Cinematography for Nonfiction:
“100 Foot Wave” (HBO Max) – “Chapter III – Cortes Bank”

Outstanding Cinematography for Reality:
“Life Below Zero” (National Geographic) – Series Body of Work

Outstanding Period Costumes:
“Bridgerton” (Netflix) – “Into the Light”

Outstanding Fantasy/Sci-Fi Costumes:
“Agatha All Along” (Disney+) – “Follow Me My Friend”

Outstanding Contemporary Costumes:
“The White Lotus” (HBO Max) – “Same Spirits, New Forms”

Outstanding Contemporary Costumed Limited Series:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “A Big or Little Thing”

Outstanding Editing for Drama:
“Andor” (Disney+) – “Who Are You?”

Outstanding Editing for Comedy:
“The Bear” (FX) – “Tomorrow”

Outstanding Editing for Limited Series:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “A Big or Little Thing”

Outstanding Editing for Multi-Cam:
“Mid-Century Modern” (Hulu) – “Here’s to You, Mrs. Schneiderman”

Outstanding Editing for Variety Programming:
“Ali Wong: Single Lady” (Netflix)

Outstanding Editing for Variety Segment:
“SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC) – Physical Comedy (segment)

Outstanding Editing for Nonfiction:
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (HBO Max)

Outstanding Editing for Reality:
“The Traitors” (Peacock) – “Let Battle Begin”

Outstanding Editing for Unstructured Reality:
“Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) – “Down to the Wire”

Outstanding Makeup for Contemporary Non-Prosthetic:
“The Last of Us” (HBO Max) – “Day One”

Outstanding Makeup for Period Fantasy Non-Prosthetic:
“House of the Dragon” (HBO Max) – “The Red Dragon and the Gold”

Outstanding Makeup for Variety Nonfiction Reality:
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV) – “Bitch, I’m a Drag Queen”

Outstanding Makeup for Prosthetic:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “After Hours”

Outstanding Hairstyling for Contemporary:
“Emily in Paris” (Netflix) – “Back at the Crazy Horse”

Outstanding Hairstyling for Period Fantasy:
“Bridgerton” (Netflix) – “Old Friends”

Outstanding Hairstyling for Variety Nonfiction Reality:
“The Boulet Brothers’ Dragula” (Shudder) – “Welcome to Hell”

Outstanding Sound Mixing for Comedy Drama One Hour:
“Severance” (Apple TV+) – “Cold Harbor”

Outstanding Sound Mixing for Limited Series:
“Adolescence” (Netflix) – “Episode 1”

Outstanding Sound Mixing for Comedy Drama Half-Hour:
“The Bear” (FX) – “Doors”

Outstanding Sound Mixing for Variety:
“SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)

Outstanding Sound Mixing for Nonfiction:
“Music by John Williams” (Disney+)

Outstanding Sound Mixing for Reality:
“Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) – “Down to the Wire”

Outstanding Sound Editing for Comedy Drama One Hour:
“The Last of Us” (HBO Max) – “Through the Valley”

Outstanding Sound Editing for Comedy Drama Half-Hour:
“The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO Max) – “Prelude”

Outstanding Sound Editing for Animated:
“Star Trek: Lower Decks” (Paramount+) – “The New Next Generation”

Outstanding Sound Editing for Limited Series:
“Black Mirror” (Netflix) – “USS Callister: Into Infinity”

Outstanding Sound Editing for Nonfiction:
“100 Foot Wave” (HBO Max) – “Chapter III – Cortes Bank”

Outstanding Special Visual Effects for Season:
“Andor” (Disney+)

Outstanding Special Visual Effects for Single Episode:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “Bliss”

Outstanding Music Composition for Series:
“The Studio” (Apple TV+) — Antonio Sánchez

Outstanding Music Composition for Limited Series:
“The Penguin” (HBO Max) – Mick Giacchino

Outstanding Music Composition for Documentary:
“The Americas” (NBC) – Hans Zimmer, Anže Rozman, Kara Talve

Outstanding Music Direction:
“The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show Starring Kendrick Lamar” (Fox)

Outstanding Music and Lyrics:
“Agatha All Along” (Disney+) – “The Ballad of the Witches’ Road” by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez

Outstanding Main Title Music:
“Dune: Prophecy” (HBO Max) – Volker Bertelmann

Outstanding Short Form Program:
“Late Night with Seth Meyers: Corrections” (NBC)

Outstanding Short Form Nonfiction:
“Adolescence: The Making Of Adolescence” (Netflix)

Outstanding Stunt Comedy:
“Cobra Kai” (Netflix)

Outstanding Stunt Drama:
“The Boys” (Prime Video)

Outstanding Stunt Performance:
“FBI: Most Wanted” (CBS) – “Moving On”

Outstanding Choreography for Variety:
“Beyoncé Bowl” (Netflix)

Outstanding Choreography for Scripted:
“Étoile” (Prime Video)

Outstanding Title Design:
“Severance” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Commercials:
“Batman Vs. Bateman – State Farm”

Outstanding Narrator:
Barack Obama, “Our Oceans” (Netflix)

Outstanding Emerging Media:
“SNL fiftieth: The Anniversary Special: Immersive Experience”

Outstanding Technical Direction for Series:
“The Voice” (NBC)

Outstanding Technical Direction for Special:
“The Lion King At The Hollywood Bowl” (Disney+)

Outstanding Lighting for Series:
“Dancing with the Stars” (ABC)

Outstanding Lighting for Special:
“SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)