The Academy can finally begin etching Paul Thomas Anderson‘s name on an Oscar trophy, as he has effectively secured a major win for One Battle After Another. Despite creating masterpieces like Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and There Will Be Blood, PTA entered this awards season with an 0-11 Oscars record looming over him.
However, once One Battle After Another premiered, it seemed destined to change. He has been a frequent award recipient throughout the season, particularly for his direction. Now, it has happened again: Paul Thomas Anderson won Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film at the 2025 Directors Guild of America Awards. With this victory, it should be smooth sailing ahead for him to win the Best Director Oscar.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s DGA Win Keeps Him The Oscars’ Best Director Frontrunner
An Upset Will Be Shocking Now
History has demonstrated that winning at the DGA is a highly accurate predictor of how the Best Director category will unfold at the Oscars. Since the category’s inception in 1948, there have only been eight instances where the Oscars and DGA had different director winners.
- 1968: Anthony Harvey (The Lion in Winter) won the DGA; Carol Reed (Oliver!) won the Oscar
- 1972: Francis Ford Coppola (The Godfather) won the DGA; Bob Fosse (Cabaret) won the Oscar
- 1985: Steven Spielberg (The Color Purple) won the DGA; Sydney Pollack (Out of Africa) won the Oscar
- 1995: Ron Howard (Apollo 13) won the DGA; Mel Gibson (Braveheart) won the Oscar
- 2000: Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) won the DGA; Steven Soderbergh (Traffic) won the Oscar
- 2002: Rob Marshall (Chicago) won the DGA; Roman Polanski (The Pianist) won the Oscar
- 2012: Ben Affleck (Argo) won the DGA; Ang Lee (Life of Pi) won the Oscar
- 2019: Sam Mendes (1917) won the DGA; Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) won the Oscar
It would be quite shocking if Anderson suddenly became the ninth director to join this list. He not only has an overdue narrative attached to his campaign and is behind what is expected to be the Best Picture winner, but his success at the DGAs has maintained his momentum through major precursors.
He has already winner of Best Director equivalent categories at both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, in addition to his DGA win. In the last 32 years when all three awards (Globes, DGA, and CCA) have awarded Best Director wins, there have been 16 occasions where they crowned the same winner. Of those, 14 went on to win the Oscar.
PTA is now among these three awards’ winners and is well on his way to being among those who conclude awards season with an Academy Award as well.
The DGAs presented Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), and others with an opportunity to challenge his lead and demonstrate that this race is not over by winning here. The fact that they did not succeed only solidifies who is leading this race. The BAFTA remains, so a surprise could still occur, but it might be too late. All indications continue to suggest that PTA will win the Best Director Oscar.
