Unlocking the Secrets Behind Billboard Chart Contenders: Discover the latest updates on artists striving for the pinnacle of the Billboard charts in our midweek column, The Contenders. This week, we delve into the highly anticipated albums and thrilling surprise releases that are set to shake up the race for the top of the Billboard 200 chart for the week dated July 26. Get ready for an exciting exploration of strategies and musical innovations that could redefine the charts.
Jackboys & Travis Scott, Jackboys 2 (Cactus Jack/Epic): The much-anticipated release of Jackboys 2, the second installment from the renowned Cactus Jack label’s star-studded rap collective, has finally arrived. This group includes talented artists such as Don Toliver, Sheck Wes, Chase B, SoFaygo, Wallie the Sensei, Luxury Tax 50, and the visionary label head, Travis Scott. Released on Sunday, July 13, the album is entering the tracking week with just a couple of days to make an impact. However, with Scott’s track record as one of the best-selling rappers over the past decade, he is poised to create a significant challenge for the Billboard 200 top position.
The album is accessible in a variety of formats, including a seven-track digital download and vinyl, as well as a comprehensive 17-song digital download and streaming option, plus an exclusive CD available only through the webstore. True to Scott’s innovative approach, the album features a multitude of physical options for fans, including five distinct vinyl editions, three standard CD variants, and two special packaging CD variants, each boasting unique artwork. Additionally, fans can find four exclusive download albums, each with 17 songs and different cover art, with some editions featuring unique bonus tracks, showcasing Scott’s commitment to delivering a diverse listening experience.
The extensive range of physical releases is expected to contribute to another remarkable sales debut for Scott and his collective. Additionally, the album has made a powerful start on streaming platforms, with numerous entries in the top 10 on both the Apple Music real-time chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing. The combination of strong physical and streaming sales is likely to propel Jackboys 2 to a No. 1 debut, potentially breaking Morgan Wallen’s hold on the Billboard 200, marking a significant milestone since I’m the Problem debuted two months prior.
Justin Bieber, Swag (ILH/Def Jam): Had it not been for the arrival of Jackboys 2, the competition for the top spot would have been intense, particularly with this week’s surprise entry: Swag, the latest album from Canadian pop sensation Justin Bieber. Announced just 10 hours before its Friday (July 11) release, the unexpected nature of its launch is matched by its innovative sound — a fresh alternative-leaning R&B style that reflects the influence of collaborators such as Dijon, Mk.gee, Eddie Benjamin, and the emerging talent, Carter Lang.
Featuring a diverse 21-track lineup, Swag includes collaborations with guest artists like Lil B, Sexyy Red, Gunna, and gospel icon Marvin Winans, along with a trio of comedic skits featuring Druski. Since its debut, the album has made a substantial impact on streaming services, quickly climbing the charts on Spotify and Apple Music. Although its momentum has slightly waned following the release of Jackboys 2, the lead single “Daisies” continues to dominate both platforms, indicating that the overall streaming performance of Swag in its first week is expected to be impressive.
However, unlike Jackboys 2, the success of Swag will heavily rely on its streaming figures for first-week sales. As is common with surprise releases, no physical copies of the album are available for purchase yet, with a release date set for December. Consequently, all sales must come from digital downloads, without any additional formats to enhance its overall numbers. This limitation may place Swag at a disadvantage, potentially leading to Justin Bieber’s first original studio album not debuting at the top of the Billboard 200.
Clipse, Let God Sort Em Out (Self-Released): In previous weeks, the latest offering from the esteemed Virginia hip-hop duo, the Clipse, would have been a formidable contender for a Billboard 200 No. 1 debut. However, with the market crowded by new releases from major artists, including the reigning champion Morgan Wallen with his extensive 37-track project, and the rising success of the KPop Demon Hunters soundtrack, the Clipse may need to aim for a top five debut instead.
Despite the fierce competition, the Clipse has the potential to achieve a strong debut, thanks to anticipated solid sales. The album is available in six vinyl variants, including two signed editions, alongside three CD variants (one signed), two cassette options, and an impressive 13 boxed sets that come in branded packaging, complete with clothing and a CD. The physical editions feature a 12-song tracklist, while the digital download and streaming versions offer an additional track, “So Be It.” With a solid streaming performance, most tracks are hitting the daily charts on Spotify and Apple Music, although the numbers may pale in comparison to those of Scott and Bieber.
Nonetheless, all indicators suggest that this will be the Clipse’s best showing on the Billboard 200 since their debut album, Lord Willin’, which debuted at No. 4. Their previous effort before their hiatus, Till the Casket Drops, only managed to reach No. 41 during a competitive Christmas season, making this potential comeback even more significant.
Key Releases to Watch This Week
TWICE, This Is For (JYP): Another notable release that could have contended for the top position in a less competitive week is the latest album from K-pop sensation TWICE, titled This Is For. The girl group’s new album is anticipated to perform well, featuring 15 CD variants, all including collectible items, some of which are randomized, along with three vinyl editions and a mid-week deluxe edition available for download and streaming. This deluxe edition also includes two bonus tracks, one of which (“Takedown”) will also appear on another album likely to secure a spot in next week’s Billboard 200 top 10, the KPop Demon Hunters soundtrack.
ATEEZ, Golden Hour: Part 3 (KQ/RCA/Legacy): The popular K-pop group ATEEZ previously achieved a No. 2 debut on the Billboard 200 with their EP Golden Hour. The newly released expanded edition, In Your Fantasy, adds an additional 10 tracks, primarily showcasing solo performances from each member of the group. The deluxe edition is being released in six CD variants, all featuring collectible items, some of which are randomized. This expansion is expected to drive sales and propel the album back into the top 10 of the charts.
GIVĒON, Beloved (Not So Fast/Epic): Unfortunately for GIVĒON, his sophomore album Beloved is launching in an extraordinarily competitive week, especially with the surprise return of Justin Bieber, who previously collaborated with him on the hit “Peaches.” Despite the fierce competition, GIVĒON’s album is expected to perform well, bolstered by five vinyl and two CD variants, including signed editions. It could be a nail-biting finish to see if this release will secure GIVĒON a spot in the top 10 of the Billboard 200, particularly after his previous album, Give or Take, peaked at No. 11, while his 2021 EP compilation, When It’s All Said and Done… Take Time, reached No. 5, marking his career high to date.
