The summer season in pop music began quietly, but it has recently exploded with energy, particularly due to the sensational announcement from global superstar Justin Bieber, who dropped a surprise album with just 10 hours’ notice. This unexpected move has created a significant buzz in the music industry.
Discover the Exciting New Album by Justin Bieber: Swag
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Explore the latest videos, charts, and news updates
Explore the latest videos, charts, and news updates
The highly anticipated album, Swag, marks Justin Bieber’s first full-length project since 2021’s critically acclaimed Justice. It was released at midnight on July 11, following a surprise announcement just hours earlier. This ambitious 21-track album showcases a daring shift in musical style, moving away from the expansive pop sound characteristic of Justice to a more personal, intimate alt-R&B vibe. Influenced by talented collaborators such as Dijon, Mk.gee, Eddie Benjamin, and Carter Lang, Swag debuted at No. 2 on the Billboard 200, achieving an impressive 163,000 first-week units sold. The album also made a significant impact on the Billboard Hot 100, with 16 tracks making the chart, including the lead single “Daisies,” which entered at No. 2.
What should Justin Bieber think about the impressive performance of his album during its debut week? Moreover, does this surprise-release approach prove to be a wise strategy for him? Billboard contributors engage in a discussion around these pivotal questions and more below.
1. The album Swag achieved a remarkable No. 2 debut on the Billboard 200, with 163,000 first-week units, ranking just behind the best-selling Jackboys 2 album by Travis Scott. Simultaneously, its lead single “Daisies” also debuted at No. 2 on the Hot 100, falling just behind Alex Warren’s song “Ordinary,” which has dominated the charts for seven weeks. Additionally, 15 other tracks from Swag made their way onto the chart. On a scale from 1 to 10, how well do you think Justin Bieber and his team should feel about this strong first-week performance?
Katie Atkinson: Given that the world was unaware of the album’s existence until a mere day before its release — coupled with no physical copies, music videos, or promotional appearances — I’d rate this a solid 9. These impressive week-one numbers are primarily driven by streaming, marking Bieber’s largest streaming week to date. If Swag had been released just one week earlier, it would have likely claimed the No. 1 spot, as Morgan Wallen’s I’m the Problem spent its eighth week at the top with 151,000 equivalent album units. While it may not have reached No. 1, it’s undoubtedly a victory.
Katie Bain: There may be a slight feeling of disappointment since a project of this scale typically aims for No. 1 debuts across all platforms. However, given the current tough competition, I believe the overall sentiment is around 8. The focus now shifts to strategizing on how to maintain momentum and continue climbing the charts.
Stephen Daw: I would give it a hearty 9. While achieving double No. 1 debuts and dethroning “Ordinary” would have earned a perfect score, the fact that it moved over 150,000 units and charted more than half the album’s tracks on the Hot 100 is an achievement worth celebrating.
Kyle Denis: An 8 seems fitting. Considering this was a surprise release with limited formats and a sound diverging from the chart-topping pop of Justice and Purpose, Swag has performed admirably. With over 75% of the album making it onto the Hot 100, and providing Bieber with his biggest streaming week to date, the absence of No. 1 hits isn’t concerning, especially since he has plenty of them on both the Hot 100 and Billboard 200 already.
Andrew Unterberger: An 8 feels appropriate. Despite some of Bieber’s experimental ventures not always receiving a warm welcome, the significant streaming debut and positive reception for “Daisies” should be viewed as victories. However, it’s clear that both Bieber and his team would have preferred at least one of those No. 2 placements to rise to the top spot.
2. The album Swag was released with little notice, debuting merely 10 hours after its announcement. Do you believe that the first-week response validates this release strategy, or do you think a more traditional buildup would have yielded better results?
Katie Atkinson: I believe the surprise release was effective but could have been even stronger if his team had prepared a physical release in advance, similar to the rollout of Jackboys 2, which combined the surprise element with a physical launch. Additionally, a ready-to-go music video for “Daisies” would have enhanced the impact. However, such preparations could risk spoiling the surprise, so if Bieber aimed for an authentic surprise experience, this approach certainly achieved that, along with the best streaming numbers he has seen yet.
Katie Bain: The album Justice received a comprehensive promotional campaign, including high-profile red-carpet appearances. This strategy resulted in a successful No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200.
However, I believe the sonic shift embodied in Swag, along with the current tone of Bieber’s public persona, is more conducive to a surprise drop. It serves as a bold statement that cuts through the noise of the industry. This transition, akin to Beyoncé’s unexpected self-titled album release in 2013, underscores Bieber’s autonomy and artistic direction. While it’s debatable whether Swag could have benefitted from a promotional buildup, its current success speaks volumes.
Stephen Daw: I view this as a validation of the surprise release approach. Comparing it to his previous album Justice, which followed a traditional release pattern and achieved a No. 1 debut, Swag sold nearly 10,000 more units in its first week despite minimal promotion. The only reason it didn’t reach the top spot on the Billboard 200 is due to another massive album launch. Clearly, the decision to allow fans access to new Bieber music within hours of its announcement has proven to be a successful tactic.
Kyle Denis: I firmly believe the surprise release strategy was the right choice. Given the bold change in sound, the engaging skits featuring Druski, and the absence of a coherent visual theme, too much advance notice would have allowed fans to form preconceived notions about Swag before experiencing it. However, the downside of this approach is the inability to offer numerous physical formats at launch.
Andrew Unterberger: This approach suits the album well. It lacks the typical pop structure and embraces a spontaneous, momentary feel, complemented by skits referencing current Bieber memes that were trending at the time of release. While reports suggest a more traditional pop album is in the works for 2026, I’m confident that project will receive the full promotional push it deserves.
3. The significant shift in sound featured in Swag showcases Bieber embracing a more organic, alt-influenced approach to R&B. Do you consider this transition a successful move for Justin Bieber?
Katie Atkinson: This new direction is a perfect match for Bieber. Beyond the contemporary influences, I hear echoes of the “quiet storm” era of R&B, albeit with a rawer production quality. Many tracks seem to draw inspiration from Michael Jackson’s “Human Nature,” a challenging benchmark to reach. Fans have long desired an R&B focused project, and this album feels like a natural evolution for his artistry.
Katie Bain: Absolutely! In my opinion, Swag represents the most cohesive and fully realized (i.e., the best) album from Bieber to date. Each track feels genuine, devoid of the manufactured pop music vibe. His collaborators contribute unique elements while allowing Bieber to infuse their styles into his own sound. This album signals his long-awaited authentic artist statement, merging R&B with elements reminiscent of AM radio.
Stephen Daw: Based on the numbers, audience reactions, reviews, and personal preference, I’d affirm that this pivot has been successful for Justin Bieber. While some tracks may not resonate with me, those that do stand out as exceptional additions to his catalog. It feels like a natural progression for Bieber, as he’s gradually embraced his R&B identity since Changes, making this more experimental sound feel like a logical next step.
Kyle Denis: Indeed! From the deep cuts of Believe to Journals, Changes, and his Grammy-nominated track “Peaches,” R&B has consistently influenced Bieber’s music. With Swag, this alternative-driven approach seems more fitting than the generic trap and R&B sound explored in Changes. Bieber’s vocals truly shine with the acoustic instrumentation present on Swag. The strength of the music highlights the unnecessary and often unamusing skits featuring Druski.
Andrew Unterberger: Absolutely. However, I do think a different title would have been more fitting.
4. Does the track “Daisies” serve as a fitting focus for the album, and how likely is it to eventually surpass “Ordinary” on the charts?
Katie Atkinson: Yes, I believe that if he had released a music video alongside “Daisies,” it would have had a strong chance of dethroning “Ordinary” this week. If radio play for “Daisies” continues to grow, coupled with a music video featuring his son, Jack Blues, it could lead to Bieber achieving his ninth No. 1 on the Hot 100.
Katie Bain: Not necessarily. However, I think precisely that element contributes to its effectiveness. It’s not an obvious choice for a single and has a distinct sound compared to much of the current chart offerings, which could be captivating listeners. While I’m uncertain about its chances of overtaking “Ordinary,” I believe “Daisies” has an edge due to its freshness amidst the familiar sounds of the charts.
Stephen Daw: I completely agree with our colleague Lyndsey Havens, who highlighted “Daisies” as a standout track on Swag. Bieber’s vocal performance is at its peak on this song, and the accompanying guitar sets a comforting tone, leading to a natural crescendo that feels uplifting. With adequate radio promotion and an engaging music video, I’d estimate “Daisies” has about a 60% chance of surpassing “Ordinary” in the coming weeks.
Kyle Denis: Yes, “Daisies” makes sense as the focus track. However, I can’t shake the feeling that songs like “Yukon,” “Go Baby,” and “Way It Is” could gain traction in the weeks ahead. I’d estimate “Daisies” has a 70-80% chance of dethroning “Ordinary,” but it will need to build momentum on radio to achieve that.
Andrew Unterberger: There are several tracks from the album that could serve as focus songs, but “Daisies” is certainly a fitting choice. However, I don’t see it having a strong chance of overtaking “Ordinary” without significant radio support or a viral music video, which I believe is unlikely in the near future. I’d give it a 20% chance.
5. With the releases of Swag by Justin Bieber and Don’t Tap the Glass by Tyler, the Creator, we are witnessing a resurgence of the surprise-release album format that seemed to have faded from the mainstream in recent years. Do you think this represents a significant shift in industry strategy, or is it merely a coincidence?
Katie Atkinson: Although I personally prefer advance notice for surprise releases (journalists appreciate being forewarned), I understand why artists like Justin Bieber and Tyler desire a shorter lead time for their projects. It minimizes speculation regarding the album’s sound and reduces the need for extensive interviews, immediately directing attention to the music itself instead of fan expectations.
Katie Bain: I suspect that the occurrence of two surprise album drops in such close proximity is likely a coincidence. However, it does indicate a wider trend of dissatisfaction with traditional album campaigns among artists and labels alike. While not every artist can pull off this strategy, it seems effective for those with a strong fanbase and name recognition, allowing them to cut through the clutter and promote their new releases in a fragmented media landscape.
Stephen Daw: I believe we can consider this a shift in industry strategy, with Swag and Don’t Tap the Glass being prime examples. Previous surprise releases, like Kendrick Lamar’s GNX, have also experienced significant chart success. Even big-name artists engaging in traditional announcements are reducing their promotional periods, a trend that caters to the fast-paced nature of today’s news cycle. Expect to see more unexpected releases from major artists in the future.
Kyle Denis: This represents a meaningful shift for artists who can afford to release albums off-cycle more frequently. The abundance of new music on Fridays means that midweek releases, akin to those of Tyler or Jackboys, can garner dedicated attention and conversations without competing with countless other acts. We may also see more surprise releases from pop A-listers experimenting with different sounds, similar to Drake’s unexpected dance album from 2022, Honestly Nevermind.
Andrew Unterberger: This could be a growing trend among artists who prefer not to build maximum hype in advance for new projects — whether because they’ve been away for a while and seek a softer return, like Bieber, or because they recently released an album and wish to avoid overexposure, like Tyler. I’m particularly interested in how Beyoncé approaches her highly anticipated upcoming release; she has historically set the standard for industry practices, so if she opts for a surprise drop, we could see a significant uptick in unexpected releases in the future.
