The Oscars season is nearing its conclusion, and Sean Penn has made headlines with a significant achievement, winning the Best Actor in a Supporting Role category at the BAFTAs. His portrayal of Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another has received widespread acclaim prior to this, but this victory represents his most substantial precursor success leading into the 98th Academy Awards.
Although Penn appeared to be the clear favorite for Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars following the premiere of One Battle After Another, maintaining dominance throughout award season has proven challenging. He has accumulated numerous nominations but has consistently fallen short at the most prestigious ceremonies, with Stellan Skarsgård and Jacob Elordi achieving wins.
With his BAFTA win, some reactions suggest that this positions Penn as the frontrunner for the Oscars as well. However, I remain skeptical, particularly when considering the historical context of major awards.
Sean Penn’s BAFTA Win Doesn’t Guarantee Him An Oscar Win (History Proves It)
Penn’s BAFTA victory undoubtedly altered the dynamics of the Best Supporting Actor race for the Oscars. With Skarsgård winning at the Golden Globes and Elordi taking home the Critics’ Choice Awards, this marks only the eighth occasion where all three awards have gone to different actors, and it is the first time since 2016, making it one of two occurrences in the 21st century.
This information is crucial for understanding Penn’s position in the race. Historically, BAFTA results are often outliers and not reliable indicators of Academy outcomes. No Best Supporting Actor Oscar winner has ever won solely based on a BAFTA victory.
In previous years, Tim Roth (Rob Roy, 1995), Paul Scofield (The Crucible, 1996), Tom Wilkinson (The Full Monty, 1997), Geoffrey Rush (Shakespeare in Love, 1998), Jude Law (The Talented Mr. Ripley, 1999), Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain, 2005), and Dev Patel (Lion, 2016) all failed to secure an Oscar after winning at BAFTA but losing at both the Globes and CCA.
While winning at BAFTA certainly enhances Penn’s standing, it cannot be his sole achievement among major precursors if he aims for a third Oscar win. (He previously won Best Actor for Mystic River and Milk.) He needs to secure another trophy soon.
Sean Penn Needs To Win At The Actor Awards To Become The Favorite
In years when CCA, Globes, and BAFTA each recognize different supporting actors, Oscar winners typically align with those who win at SAG (now known as the Actor Awards). There have been four occasions where the Oscar winner matched SAG.
Of these instances, two aligned solely with SAG (Robin Williams for Good Will Hunting in 1997 and Michael Caine for The Cider House Rules in 1999), while two others won both SAG and CCA before securing an Oscar (Cuba Gooding Jr. for Jerry Maguire in 1996 and Mahershala Ali for Green Book in 2016).
The Globes and CCA each have one instance where they were the sole precursor aligning with an Oscar winner. However, this has never occurred with BAFTA. Therefore, if Penn intends to win the Oscar, he must triumph at the Actor Awards on March 1. This would demonstrate substantial support and provide him another direct victory over Elordi.
