This week, our forecasts for the box office performance of Thunderbolts suggested it would likely fall short of the industry’s optimistic estimate of $80 million, with projections indicating a total weekend haul of around $75 million. According to the latest data from Deadline, it appears that this prediction was accurate, as they estimate an opening weekend between $73 million and $77 million. Such figures fall on the lower end of the spectrum for Marvel films, aligning closely with the pandemic-affected releases of Shang-Chi and Eternals. Notably, this performance is below that of Captain America: Brave New World, which opened at $88 million. Nevertheless, Thunderbolts may still have the potential to be profitable or at least break even, given its production budget of approximately $180 million, which is considered modest for a Marvel project. If it manages to surpass the $500 million mark globally, it could yield a significant profit. In contrast, Brave New World—despite a stronger start—has only amassed $414 million to date and is poised to be one of the few Marvel films that could end up in the red.
So, what factors are contributing to this trend? Is the notion of superhero fatigue finally taking hold? It seems plausible, as box office receipts for Marvel films have been on a downward trajectory following the release of Ant-Man & The Wasp: Quantumania, with the exception of notable successes like Guardians of the Galaxy 3 and Deadpool & Wolverine. The film received a solid A-minus on its CinemaScore, suggesting that it might experience less of a drop-off than anticipated in the upcoming week. However, it appears that Ryan Coogler’s blockbuster Sinners is significantly impacting the box office landscape, having surprisingly earned $33 million in its third weekend, representing only a 28% decline despite losing all of its premium screening locations. In response to its impressive performance and audience interest, Sinners will be making a return to large format screens for a limited re-release in two weeks, just before Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning takes over those venues.
Furthermore, Sinners is also seemingly affecting the box office performance of The Accountant 2, which is expected to see a disappointing weekend drop of around 60%, landing just below $10 million with a cumulative total of $41 million. It appears unlikely that this sequel will match the financial success of its predecessor, although it still has the potential to be a profitable venture for Amazon and MGM once it is available for streaming.
Stay tuned for our comprehensive box office roundup tomorrow!
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