The Venice Film Festival is officially over, and as the first of the major fall festivals, it saw the world premieres of several major films that could find themselves in contention at the Oscars next year. It’s still very early in the race, but Venice (if not Cannes) is typically the start of “awards season” as most experts understand it.
I was on the ground at this year’s Venice Film Festival, and I can attest that several interesting Oscar narratives have already begun to form. But, many of them have also left some sizable questions as the awards season really starts to pick up steam.
Whether this is actors who delivered excellent work in a specific project, or movies that surpassed expectations and left a lasting impression, the festival helped to illuminate what certain Oscars categories may end up looking like.
Who Will Win In A Stacked Best Actress Race?
It’s definitely too early to have a concrete idea of what any category is going to look like at the 2026 Oscars, but it seems like Best Actress is going to be particularly competitive. At Venice alone, several actresses have already made their entrance into the race and proven that they’re here to stay.
Bugonia was one of the first major releases to screen at Venice this year, and Emma Stone’s lead performance was the talking point of the festival for days afterwards. She’s obviously no stranger to critical acclaim, but the way she finely balances the line between drama and comedy in Bugonia is something else entirely.
It’s unclear exactly how Bugonia will perform with the Academy (Best Picture and Best Director are also possible), but Emma Stone feels like a shoo-in at this point in the race. Jesse Plemons also delivers career-best work in the film, and the pair could easily find themselves both getting nominated.
Equally, Amanda Seyfried stunned audiences with her vulnerable, physical work in The Testament of Ann Lee. Critics seemed unanimous in their praise of her lead performance. Word gets around fast in Venice, and I heard several different people label her as the “best performance of the year,” — which can only mean good things for her Oscars chances.
The Testament of Ann Lee also features some intense musical numbers, with Mona Fastvold’s astute direction bringing the “dancing” of the Shakers’ worship to life with an enchanting fluidity. Seyfried is brilliant in these moments, delivering both the vulnerable acting and talented singing required to make the role work.
Perhaps less likely (but no less deserving) are candidates such as Julia Roberts in After The Hunt or Son Ye-jin in No Other Choice. Both actresses turn in deeply layered work in their respective projects. After The Hunt didn’t receive great reviews, which could hurt Roberts, while Son Ye-jin may not have the name recognition to give her campaign enough momentum.
Who will win among these contenders is anyone’s guess at this point. But with more performances to come and other contenders emerging with Jessie Buckley in Hamnet (and maybe even Sydney Sweeney in Christy), this will be a race to watch all season long.
Is The Smashing Machine Really Poised For Oscars Success?
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It’s no secret that Dwayne Johnson could be on the road to an Oscar nomination for The Smashing Machine, but the consensus on the ground at Venice was less decisive than many reports would claim. While it’s true that Johnson’s work in The Smashing Machine is some of his best, the actor still has a long way to go before he can be considered a lock for Best Actor.
His chances will be clearer when The Smashing Machine releases to the public in October, letting general audiences judge the Hollywood star’s performance for themselves. It’s also worth noting that Emily Blunt is just as impressive in the film, and she could easily find herself swept up in a Best Supporting Actress campaign.
However, the most likely road for The Smashing Machine to find itself at the Oscars isn’t through either of the lead actors – but rather through Benny Safdie’s direction. The filmmaker was awarded the Silver Lion by the Venice Film Festival jury, singling him out for the best directorial accomplishment in competition.
Admittedly, the Silver Lion doesn’t have the best track record for predicting the eventual Best Director winner at the Oscars, but it certainly helps to build the foundations of a successful campaign. Most recently, Jane Campion turned her Silver Lion into an Academy Award in 2022. Brady Corbet almost did the same last year.
It’s now up to A24 to give the film the necessary campaign to deliver the goods. There’s more that goes into Oscar wins than the quality of a movie or performance, so the narrative side of The Smashing Machine‘s campaign could really help here.
Netflix Has 3 Best Picture Contenders, So Which Will It Favor?
Netflix has a very strong track record when it comes to the Oscars – the streaming giant has landed at least one film in the Best Picture lineup every year since Roma in 2019. While they’ve never actually won the Oscars’ most prestigious award, they’re one of the most consistent studios when it comes to getting nominated.
The streaming studio had three films in competition at Venice this year: A House of Dynamite, Frankenstein, and Jay Kelly. Nobody was sure exactly which of these candidates would emerge as Netflix’s golden ticket to the Oscars, but after watching all three, I’d be shocked if it’s not Jay Kelly.
Reviews for Jay Kelly were generally strong from Venice, but it wasn’t until the film had its American premiere at Telluride that its momentum really picked up. It’s certainly Netflix’s most accessible and audience-friendly movie, which tends to be a strong quality in a Best Picture nominee.
While A House of Dynamite definitely isn’t out of the running (with its 90% on Rotten Tomatoes), the question of which movie comes out on top ultimately hinges on which one Netflix chooses to prioritize when the Oscar campaigns start. The studio typically pushes one movie per year, putting all of its resources into a single campaign.
Jay Kelly seems like the smarter choice in this regard because it has more potential to score in other categories too. George Clooney and Adam Sandler could easily find themselves with nominations(if not wins) for their charming, charismatic performances, while writer/director Noah Baumbach could also come along for the ride. This isn’t really the case with A House of Dynamite‘s distractingly large ensemble.
Of course, it would be foolish to completely discount Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein. The movie appears more strongly positioned to rack up below-the-line nominations, and potentially even wins, rather than emerge as a true Best Picture contender to win.
Netflix has a history of getting two Best Picture nominees, something they did in 2020, 2021, and 2022, so there’s a chance for multiple contenders this year again. But if the streamer eventually puts its full support behind one, Jay Kelly seems likethe one to choose.
Does Father Mother Sister Brother’s Golden Lion Win Help Its Oscar Chances?
The Golden Lion is the most prestigious award given out bythe Venice Film Festival jury. Whilethe winners don’t cross over withthe Best Picture winners all that frequently (twice overthe past decade:NomadlandandThe Shapeof Water),it canbe agood indicatorof which films stand achance attheOscars.
Therewas heaps of anticipationin Venice whenthe jurywas decidingthis year’sGolden Lion – primarilybecause there didn’tseemtobeaconsensuswinner.MovieslikeNo OtherChoiceandThe Voiceof Hind Rajabseemedthemostlikely,given their strongreviewsandpoliticalstories,butthejuryoptedforanotherfilmentirely:JimJarmusch’sFather Mother Sister Brother.
Thiswasamajorsurprise,andone that<strong veryfew criticsonthegroundatVenicewerepredicting .Father Mother Sister Brotherreceivedmixedreviews ,withmany concedingthatit’saverywell-madefilmthatdoesn’talwaysmakethemostofitsuniquelyscatteredstory.ButtheGoldenLionwinhasofficiallyputitontheradar,andmanyexpertswillnowbeconsideringitforBestPicture.
Thatbeing said,I’dbeshockedifFather Mother Sister Brother’ssuccessatVenice actuallytranslatestoaBestPicturenomination.Jarmuschdoesn’thaveagreattrackrecordwiththeAcademy,andthisfilmdoesn’tfeelasimportantorboundary-pushingassomeofhisotherworks.It’smorelikelythatthiswinwillbeanoutlierinthebroaderawardscircuitratherthananindicatoroffutureOscarsuccess.
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