Disney’s highly anticipated sequel, Freaky Friday, titled Freakier Friday, appears to be underperforming at the box office, failing to meet the studio’s expectations. The family-friendly comedy has been overshadowed by Zack Cregger’s thrilling new release, Weapons. Earlier this week, I accurately forecasted that Freakier Friday would debut around $30 million—a prediction that has proven correct. In contrast, many industry analysts anticipated a more optimistic opening in the $40–50 million range, which seemed overly ambitious to me. Meanwhile, Weapons, which I believed would secure a solid $25 million in its second place, is surprisingly on track for a remarkable $40 million opening weekend, according to Deadline, capturing the top position at the box office.
What factors are influencing this trend? To put it simply, moviegoers are captivated by the buzz surrounding Weapons. It is garnering some of the most favorable reviews of the year (we were impressed as well) and has quickly established itself as a must-see, “water-cooler” phenomenon. Impressively, it has received an A– CinemaScore, which is exceptionally rare for films within the horror genre. Typically, successful horror films score in the B range, with many landing in the C’s. Only a few recent horror films, such as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and Jordan Peele’s Get Out, have achieved an A score. With such a high rating, the positive word-of-mouth for Weapons is likely to be outstanding, positioning it to maintain its top ranking for a significant portion of the summer, with a $100 million milestone well within reach.
What does this indicate for the film industry? It highlights that studios should embrace the creation of high-quality, big-budget horror films without hesitation. As I mentioned in my review of Weapons, the horror genre has often been produced on a low budget, under the assumption that it has a limited box office potential. However, films like Sinners and Weapons prove otherwise—especially Weapons, which evokes the prestige horror style of the 1970s, reminiscent of classics such as The Exorcist.
In other box office news, the decline of Fantastic Four continues to escalate, plummeting another 60% this weekend to approximately $15 million, which has prompted a thoughtful analysis by our colleague Tyler. On the other hand, The Naked Gun is showcasing more consistent performance, decreasing by about 50% in its second week—an acceptable, albeit not extraordinary, outcome. It is expected to close the weekend just behind The Bad Guys 2.
We will return tomorrow with a comprehensive report detailing the latest box office trends and insights.
