Reflecting on Frodo’s poignant words after the destruction of the One Ring while seated on a boulder amid rivers of fiery lava in ?The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King?: It?s executed.
Following two crucial extensions to the voting period due to the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles, the nomination voting window for the 97th Academy Awards has officially concluded. While organizations like the Producers Guild of America and the Writers Guild of America have provided valuable insights into which films may shine at this year?s Oscars, one thing is certain: the Academy Awards are notorious for their surprises, and this year promises to be no different. Expect the unexpected as the nominations unfold.
For experienced awards analysts, forecasting the Oscar nominations has always required a blend of meticulous calculations, passionate discussions, and informal conversations with Academy voters. This year, however, the tone of these discussions shifted significantly. Many analysts felt hesitant to reach out to voters in the wake of the wildfires that ravaged parts of Los Angeles. In an unexpected turn, it was the voters who reached out first, expressing genuine concern for the well-being of journalists and their families. Such gestures serve as a heartwarming reminder that even within the glamour of Hollywood, human connection prevails over the superficiality of fame.
Once the courteous exchanges were completed, conversations naturally gravitated towards cinema, providing an uplifting diversion from the surrounding chaos. For voters, discussing films served as a comforting escape during a challenging period. These discussions began to unveil insights and trends regarding this year?s Oscar race. From potential front-runners for Best Picture to unexpected omissions, here are seven essential takeaways derived from conversations with Academy members, accompanied by some pressing questions as we approach the January 23 nominations announcement.
?The Brutalist?
Courtesy Everett Collection
Will ?The Brutalist? Make a Lasting Impression on Voters?
Brady Corbet?s ?The Brutalist? stands as a formidable contender in this year’s race, especially following its recent Golden Globe victory. However, some voters confided that they either ?didn?t get to it? or ?didn?t finish it,? citing its lengthy runtime and challenging subject matter. While this may not significantly hinder the film?s chances for nominations?many anticipate it will secure at least a solid eight nods?it does raise questions about why supporting actress hopeful Felicity Jones, whose critical role appears only in the latter half of the film, has not garnered more momentum in the race.
The Significance of Golden Globe Wins in the Oscars Race.
Despite ongoing debates regarding the relevance of the Golden Globes, securing a win at this prestigious event undeniably carries substantial weight in the awards circuit. Several voters have acknowledged that the Globes have influenced their viewing priorities, bringing attention to films like ?I?m Still Here,? featuring Fernanda Torres, and ?A Real Pain,? starring Kieran Culkin. Meanwhile, major contenders like Jacques Audiard?s ?Emilia Pérez? and Edward Berger?s ?Conclave? have solidified their status as must-watch films thanks to their wins in specific categories. For films that are hovering just below the radar, such recognition can be pivotal, potentially making the difference between obtaining a nomination or being overlooked.
Edward Norton and Timothee Chalamet in ?A Full Unknown?
Searchlight
Understanding the Divide: Critics, Audiences, and Academy Voters
This year, the distinction between critics, general audiences, and Academy voters seems particularly pronounced. For instance, critically acclaimed films like RaMell Ross? ?Nickel Boys? and Mike Leigh?s ?Hard Truths? have struggled to convert their critical acclaim into enthusiasm from voters. Conversely, ?Emilia Pérez,? despite its lukewarm Rotten Tomatoes scores (76% from critics, 40% from audiences), is widely expected to perform strongly in nominations, potentially setting a record as the most-nominated non-English-language film in Oscar history.
In a similar vein, James Mangold?s Bob Dylan biopic ?A Full Unknown,? which holds a 79% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, has garnered passionate support among Academy voters despite mixed reviews from other circles. Such instances highlight that Academy voters often operate on a different wavelength, guided more by personal preferences, nostalgia, and the emotional impact of films rather than relying solely on external ratings and metrics.
?Emilia Pérez?
PAGE 114 ? WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS ?
Unpacking the Controversy of ?Class Fraud? in Oscar Nominations
The term ?class fraud? has emerged as a popular buzzword this awards season, as both social media and voters highlight campaigns that present performances categorized as supporting to enhance their chances of winning awards. Notable examples include Zoe Salda?a in ?Emilia Pérez,? Kieran Culkin in ?A Real Pain,? and Ariana Grande in ?Wicked,? all marketed as supporting roles despite having significant screen time and pivotal contributions to their respective films.
One Academy member remarked, ?I like them, but let?s be honest, she?s a lead,? referring specifically to Salda?a?s role. The implications of these dynamics may lead to unexpected outcomes, split votes, or surprising placements, reminiscent of past Oscar upsets that have left audiences in disbelief.
This leads me to present several scenarios (not predictions, but possibilities) regarding how nominations might shape up on nomination morning. Admittedly, I?m a journalist attempting to explain a complex situation using numbers?an endeavor I?m not particularly adept in.
The first scenario involves business as usual for ?Emilia Pérez,? with Karla Sofia Gascon potentially becoming the first openly transgender actor nominated in the lead category, while Salda?a continues to pursue her frontrunner status in supporting.
But what if there?s a twist?
Imagine a scenario akin to Kate Winslet?s situation with ?The Reader,? where Salda?a?s performance is classified as lead while her co-star is recognized in the same category, marking the first time since Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon in ?Thelma & Louise? (1991) that a co-leading duo is acknowledged.
Alternatively, Gascon might be entirely excluded from the nominations, leaving Salda?a to represent the film solely as a supporting actress. According to Academy rules, if a performance ranks in the top five for both lead and supporting categories, the performance with the most votes becomes the nominated one. Given the highly competitive nature of the Best Actress race, it will be fascinating to observe how votes are allocated among all contenders.
The final scenario, which may seem far-fetched yet could also be the most plausible, echoes the surprise of ?Judas and the Black Messiah? (2021), when LaKeith Stanfield, who campaigned as a lead actor, unexpectedly appeared in the supporting category alongside his eventual Oscar-winning co-star Daniel Kaluuya. After the nominations in 2021, I elaborated on the reasons for this surprising outcome.
In a conversation with an Acting Branch member, I inquired about their vote for Gascón, to which they responded, ?Oh yes, in supporting, right??
When I clarified that Gascón was being considered for lead and Salda?a for supporting, their immediate reaction was, ?Supporting?!? Although I cannot ascertain how they ultimately voted, this exchange raised a potential alarm. What implications might this have on the overall race, and who could be pushed out as a result? The uncertainty surrounding this scenario is indeed perplexing.
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