The Contenders: Analyzing Artists Poised for Billboard Chart Dominance is a compelling midweek column that delves into the ambitious artists striving for the pinnacle of the Billboard charts and the innovative strategies they employ to achieve their goals. This week, we focus on the formidable challengers aiming to seize the coveted No. 1 position in the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated February 15. Following Travis Scott?s impressive debut at the top with his track ?4×4,? we explore the most significant threats to his reign and the dynamics of the competitive music landscape.

Morgan Wallen Releases New Single ?I?m the Problem? to Continue Chart Dominance: As one of the most consistently successful artists on the Billboard charts over the past two years, Morgan Wallen has made a remarkable impact with three Hot 100 No. 1 hits in 2023, including his chart-toppers ?Last Night? and ?Love Somebody,? as well as his collaboration with Post Malone, ?I Had Some Help.? On January 31, he introduced his latest single, ?I?m the Problem,? a poignant ballad centered on the complexities of a toxic relationship. This track serves not only as the lead single but also the title track for his forthcoming fourth studio album, which follows the monumental success of his previous album, One Thing at a Time, which has remained in the Billboard 200?s top five for nearly two years.

?I?m the Problem? Soars on Streaming Platforms, but Faces Competition: Upon its release, ?I?m the Problem? quickly ascended the streaming charts, dominating both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and the real-time Apple Music charts. However, its momentum has begun to wane sooner than anticipated, as it has been overtaken by SZA?s collaboration with Kendrick Lamar, ?30 for 30,? on the Apple Music chart, and it has already slipped from the top 10 on Spotify. Despite these challenges, the track has maintained a position in the iTunes top 10, even while facing competition from several Grammy-nominated songs. Additionally, its performance at country radio has been impressive, garnering over eight million airplay impressions within its first four days, according to Luminate, demonstrating Wallen?s enduring popularity in the country music scene.

Will ?I?m the Problem? Secure a Top 10 Spot?: Although ?I?m the Problem? may not have the streaming velocity necessary to secure a No. 1 debut, it is poised to achieve at least another top 10 hit for this dominant figure in country music. Given Wallen?s strong track record and devoted fan base, it?s reasonable to expect that the song will perform well in the coming weeks, solidifying his status as a leading force in the industry.

Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars Release ?Die With a Smile? Amidst Grammy Buzz: Despite Lady Gaga’s high-profile performances at major events in 2025, including the FireAid concert and the Grammys, she did not perform her latest collaboration with Bruno Mars, ?Die With a Smile,? at either event. However, the song could receive a significant boost following its recent win for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, alongside Gaga?s compelling acceptance speech advocating for the trans community. This combination of visibility and recognition may enhance the track’s streaming and sales figures in the near future.

?Die With a Smile? Maintains Streaming Success Despite Competition: Currently, ?Die With a Smile? remains a formidable contender in the streaming arena, consistently ranking in the top 10 on Apple Music while reclaiming the No. 1 position on Spotify?s Daily Songs Top USA chart. The song also poses a challenge to Shaboozey?s long-standing hit ?A Bar Song (Tipsy)? which has dominated radio for 27 weeks. Nevertheless, with its ongoing strength in streaming, sales, and radio airplay, ?Die With a Smile? is well-positioned for a potential return to the No. 1 slot for a fifth consecutive week.

The Weeknd?s New Album Launches with ?Cry for Me? & ?Timeless? Featuring Playboi Carti: The Weeknd had an eventful weekend, marked by the release of his highly anticipated album Hurry Up Tomorrow on Friday, followed by an unexpected appearance at the Grammys, where he performed two standout tracks from the album. ?Timeless,? featuring Playboi Carti, has already made waves, reaching No. 3 on the Hot 100, while ?Cry for Me? has emerged as a significant highlight from the new album. This combination of new music and live performance could fuel further success for both tracks in the upcoming weeks.

Anticipating Chart Performance for ?Cry for Me? and ?Timeless?: Both of The Weeknd’s new tracks are expected to play a crucial role in the top 10 race in the coming weeks. Currently, ?Cry for Me? is leading on Apple Music, while ?Timeless? is performing well on Spotify and has a substantial advantage in radio airplay due to its earlier release. Although neither track may secure the No. 1 spot next week, The Weeknd is known for his ability to innovate and amplify his hits, so they should not be counted out as they continue to climb the charts.

Travis Scott?s ?4×4? Faces a Decline in Week Two: The reigning No. 1 song on the Hot 100, Travis Scott?s ?4×4,? is expected to experience a noticeable drop in its second week. The impressive first-week sales figure of 167,000 is projected to recede, and streaming numbers have already started to diminish, with the song falling out of the top 50 on both Spotify and Apple Music. However, ?4×4? is not likely to vanish entirely; it has begun to gain traction on radio, with expectations for it to rise on Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay in its second week, and potentially break into the top 20 on Rhythmic Airplay.

Doechii?s ?Denial Is a River? Gains Momentum Post-Grammys: While not yet a top 10 contender, Doechii?s breakout hit ?Denial Is a River? from her Grammy-winning mixtape Alligator Bites Never Heal is poised to benefit significantly from her post-Grammys surge in streams and sales. The track has already begun to make an impact on the charts, climbing to No. 55 on the Hot 100 this week. Furthermore, radio support is increasing, with ?Denial? on track to potentially reach the top 20 on Rhythmic Airplay while simultaneously gaining momentum on Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay.